Date:  Saturday, May 26, 2012

  Time:  8:00am – 10:30am

  Location:  Bernardo Bay Staging Area

Hike through varied terrain to a great view of a waterfall.  Learn about the natural history of the region and enjoy the beauty of
the area.  Please RSVP to Leana@sdrp.org or (858) 674-2275 x14. Directions:

Bernardo Bay Natural/Staging Area: (for access to East and
South Lake Hodges Trails and the Ribbon Bridge)

Take I-15 to the West Bernardo Dr./Pomerado  Rd. exit. Turn left onto West Bernardo
Dr.  Within a half mile, you will come to
the parking area on the right side of the road. (click here for a map).

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Want to know where you home fits in the picture?  Feel free to contact me anytime.

If

The year is starting out with buyers finally starting to take advantage of low interest rates and good prices.  If you have been thinking about selling your home, please call me today.

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By ANDREW  KEATTS, The Daily  Transcript
Thursday,   January 5, 2012

The U.S. economy is gaining momentum,  California is now outpacing the nation economically and San Diego’s better positioned than all but the San Francisco Bay Area, according to a forecast from Beacon Economics.

The Los Angeles-based economic forecasting firm, which has been notably bearish in recent years after accurately identifying the housing bubble, said the 1.7 percent rate of national economic growth represents a historically healthy market.

It forecasts 2.8 percent real gross domestic product growth in the first quarter of the year, 3.6 percent growth in the second quarter, 3.17 percent growth in the third quarter and 3.5 percent growth to close the year.

The unemployment rate will be 8.87 percent in the first quarter of 2012, before falling to 8.7 percent, 8.5 percent and 8.3 percent on a quarterly basis to close out the year, according to Beacon.

In California, it says the unemployment rate will be 11.42 percent in the first quarter of the year, followed by 11.1 percent 10.85 percent and 10.57 percent in the fourth quarter.

San Diego, meanwhile, has an above average outlook for 2012, according to Beacon.

“Military cutbacks are an area for concern,” said Brad Kemp, director of regional research for Beacon. “But there’s a larger research component related to military in San Diego, which won’t be affected by troop drawdowns in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

Robust growth — rates in the vicinity of 6  percent — isn’t a reasonable expectation because the economy is still correcting itself from the artificially created jobs associated with the housing boom, according to Kemp.

“It’s slow growth, but it’s pretty darn good growth,” Kemp said. “The robust growth that people think is normal post-recession we’re not going to get it. We had too much  growth on the front end, and that’s been followed by a correction.”

San Diego, boosted by its research-oriented industries and tourism, will continue to lead Southern California in the recession, trailing only the Bay Area in the  state.

California, now outpacing the nation, will likewise continue its steady level of slow-growth, and will  reach its pre-recession peak of more than 15 million jobs by   2015. To date, the state has regained 250,000 of the 1.3 million jobs it lost.

Kemp said the state Supreme Court’s ruling  last week effectively ending redevelopment agencies creates short-term turmoil for coastal markets with prohibitively expensive housing — like San Diego.

“Affordable housing is absolutely critical here and now we’ve lost the mechanism we do that through,” he said.

Otherwise, the effects of the end of  redevelopment as we know it will be a long-term question and will depend on each market’s need to reinvent its industrial  composition.

San Diego, Kemp said, should be relatively well positioned to weather that long-term concern.

Beacon’s economic forecast cited the  country’s 3.55 percent gross domestic demand, which it called a  better measure than GDP because it is ultimately responsible for driving production, as evidence that the economy was performing  better than is widely perceived.

Dramatically declining delinquency rates are  evidence that the return of the consumer is sustainable, the forecast said. It called delinquency rates a more predictive measure of spending than consumer confidence.

Business investment is increasing, evidenced both by capital goods orders and increases in outstanding commercial and industrial bank loans.

Currently at $1.7 billion, real investment is  expected to reach $1.9 billion by the end of 2012, according to Beacon.

And construction, according to Beacon’s forecast, is no longer a drag on the recovery. Housing starts are creeping up now that excess supply has been absorbed and vacancy rates are beginning to fall.

The real estate market, historically a leader out of recessions, will continue to lag the recovery, Beacon forecasts. Housing prices have stabilized, but will remain flat        through 2012. They’ll begin to experience modest appreciation        beginning in 2013.

As California’s housing supply remains  dramatically underbuilt, Beacon expects construction increases to accelerate in the next two to three years.

The greatest drag on the economy at this point is the public sector. After shedding jobs for months, the drag will only get worse once the federal government begins  meaningfully addressing its hulking deficit.

Beacon adamantly rejected concerns of a  double-dip recession over the summer, when it became a popular  forecast in the media. The drivers of the economy’s  disappointing factors early in 2011, they said, were transitory,  while concrete economic numbers indicated a market that was slowly but undeniably improving.

The company’s forecast also said the trend of upward revisions to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly data is strongly indicative of a market in recovery.

“Do not mistake Beacon Economics’ bullishness  with being Pollyannaish,” the forecast reads. “As far as  recoveries go, this continues to be a disappointment.”

Kemp said the company’s relative bullishness is a result of focusing on long-term business cycles, rather than politically expedient hysteria.

“The economy is a living breathing thing, but it happens in long cycles, which are more important than short-term politics,” he said. “They can speed it up or slow it down, but they can’t change outcomes.”

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Outdoor living is rewarding with nearby hiking and biking trails, access to community baseball fields and community clubs such as the Westwood Club with tennis courts, swimming pools, basketball, play areas, a fitness center and more.

Additionally, shopping centers and restaurants abound in the surrounding areas of Rancho Bernardo, 4S Ranch, and Carmel Mountain.

The Westwood Valley communities have approximately 550 affordable homes, in 5 contiguous subdivisions. Built between 1989 and 1992, Westwood Valley homes boast expansive, open floorplans, big windows and many homes enjoy expansive views of hills, green space and lovely Lake Hodges. The homes typically have 3-5 bedrooms and feature 1,700 to 2,800+ square feet of living space many with lofts, dens, family rooms and an extra bedroom downstairs.

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